The three-point rule in the German premier soccer league and the proportion of ties: A reply to the article by Dilger and Geyer 2007 | Die Drei-Punkte-Regel in der deutschen 1. Fußballbundesliga und der Anteil unentschiedener Spiele: Eine Replik auf den Beitrag von Dilger und Geyer 2007

Strauss,Bernd B.,Hagemann,Norbert N.,Loffing,Florian F.,

Abstract

Dilger and Geyer (2007) analysed the impact of introducing the three-point rule in 1995/1996 on the results in the German premier soccer league (1. Fußballbundesliga). The authors argue that this change, among others, would lead to a reduction in the number of draws as the possibility to gain 3 points instead of 2 would cause a higher incentive for winning. Examining the entire n=6194 games in the German premier soccer league 10 years before and after the rule change, respectively, they found a significant difference for this specific period (p<0. 01). This finding is interpreted as evidence for the impact of the three-point rule. We contradict this questionable interpretation by Dilger and Geyer (2007). In our reply we show that the implementation of the three-point rule has no (practically relevant) impact on the proportion of draws. For this purpose, all of the n=13,406 matches since 1963/1964 were included in the analysis. The results indicate fluctuations in the percentage of draws during 44 years of existence of the German premier soccer league independently of the implementation of the three-point rule. In light of this, an impact of the three-point rule on the proportion of draws cannot be identified at all. © 2009 Springer Medizin Verlag.